Fomc Dot Plot June 2024. Back in june (the latest dot plot update) 12 fomc members pencilled in another rate hike for 2023. That suggests the fed will cut rates by 0.75%.
• however, the fomc’s dot plot shifted higher beyond 2024. What is the likelihood that the fed will change the federal target rate at upcoming fomc meetings, according to interest rate traders?
Fomc Meeting Risks Are Skewed Toward A Less Dovish Outcome, With The Potential For The Median Fed Dot For 2024 To Rise To 4.9%, Or Only Two Interest Rate Cuts.
For 2024, the median fed funds target rate is 4.6%.
Additionally, The Median Member Expects 225 Bps Of Rate Cuts Between 2024 And 2025 Once Core Pce Has Fallen Below 3% And The Unemployment Rate Is At 4.5%.
All eyes this week will be on the release of the fed’s quarterly ‘dot plot,’ which will signal whether central bank officials still agree that three rate cuts are likely in.
The Fomc Dot Plot For May 2023 Show The Median Rate At The End Of 2023 At 5.6% Versus 5.1% In March 2023.
Images References :
The First Fomc Decision Of 2024 Should See The Committee Unanimously Vote To Maintain The Target Range For The Fed.
Here is the evolution of the projections by year.
Fomc Projections Materials, Accessible Version Accessible Version.
Fomc meeting risks are skewed toward a less dovish outcome, with the potential for the median fed dot for 2024 to rise to 4.9%, or only two interest rate cuts.
(For Instance, The Dot Plot For June 2024 Would Include Projections For The End Of 2024, 2025, 2026 And The “Longer Run.”) It’s An Exercise That Has Real Influence.